Reassurance – “it will turn out alright” – would be comforting as we head into 2020; unfortunately, it looks like change and paradigm shifts will be with us again.
‘Off course‘ applies when it comes to climate change and disrupted global temperatures. To help make it ‘alright’, fiscal, investment-focused policy might provide an answer. And there are important roles to play for central bankers and investors. Read our state-of-play article.
Perhaps disconcertingly, some of the basic truths that have long guided investors no longer apply. One is that growth plus inflation equals the benchmark yield. This has left bond investors looking for new waypoints. Interestingly, here too, fiscal, investment-focused policy could help get growth and inflation back on track, argues Arnaud-Guilhem Lamy in our second article.
If disruption is the hallmark of our time, it is imperative to keep abreast of it so that you can identify the opportunities that inevitably go with it. In our final article, we provide an overview – in both video and text – of the key themes discussed at the recent Investment Forum. We see these as helping us chart the course for solutions and strategies that can make a difference to investors.
Four years after the landmark Paris Agreement, it is clear that climate change has been raging on unabated. Taking action now is imperative if we are to steer away from the dire consequences across society and industry.
With eurozone rates adrift from the basic ‘growth plus inflation’ calculation, anchorless fixed-income investors need something solid to grab onto. Investment-boosting fiscal policy in 2020 could be their lifeline.
From the prospects for China (despite the trade war ructions) to the US outlook in an election year, from the policies needed to regulate the mushrooming tech industry to action to contain global warming.
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Any views expressed here are those of the author as of the date of publication, are based on available information, and are subject to change without notice. Individual portfolio management teams may hold different views and may take different investment decisions for different clients.
The value of investments and the income they generate may go down as well as up and it is possible that investors will not recover their initial outlay.
Investing in emerging markets, or specialised or restricted sectors is likely to be subject to a higher than average volatility due to a high degree of concentration, greater uncertainty because less information is available, there is less liquidity, or due to greater sensitivity to changes in market conditions (social, political and economic conditions).
Some emerging markets offer less security than the majority of international developed markets. For this reason, services for portfolio transactions, liquidation and conservation on behalf of funds invested in emerging markets may carry greater risk.